Australian GP Review - Trying Times for ‘New’ Teams

The perceived wisdom is that teams in their second season in F1 struggle to match the heights reached in their first year, in part due to the burden of having to design their second car while still racing and developing their first. However, many (including myself) felt that the 2010 debutants were so slow in their first season that surely they couldn’t be as slow again. Could they?

Well, in HRT’s case hopes weren’t exactly high before the weekend began, the team having somehow failed to run their new car at all before Australia. The mechanics put in a 24 hour shift in the Albert Park pit lane to get the cars finished, but they didn’t manage any meaningful running in practice before failing to qualify by the fairly comfortable margins of 1.7 seconds (Liuzzi) and 3.0 seconds (Karthikeyan).

Given the rumours flying about the paddock (that the team didn’t have enough parts to run both cars, or that the car couldn’t run at all because it hadn’t passed the mandatory crash tests), things could have been worse, particularly bearing in mind that the season should have started two weeks earlier in Bahrain - one wonders what state the team would have been in then.

The problem now for HRT is that there is no more testing, so they will have to continue to learn about their new car in public while trying to beat the 107% limit in qualifying so they can at least attempt a race distance.

Over at Virgin things were better, but only just. As early as Friday Timo Glock was worrying about the 107% cut-off, and admitted that the team’s new car was “not quick enough at the moment”. He also went as far to say that he hoped “that the guys who are behind the new package for the car know what they are doing”- a far cry from the positive noises being made by Tonio Liuzzi, despite his non-qualification.

However, both Virgin cars qualified for the race (D’Ambrosio scraping in by only half a second) and were still running at the end, albeit several laps adrift, and in Glock’s case not classified as a finisher. The team appear to be pinning their hopes on a major upgrade planned for Turkey, but no doubt the bigger teams will develop at an even faster rate, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the team falls foul of the 107% rule at some point this year. Glock himself has acknowledged this in recent interviews, and it’s hard to see him staying at the team beyond the end of the season unless the upgraded package is a vast improvement.

Given their lack of performance, Virgin will also be concerned that HRT (assuming they ever get their new car running properly) could give them a run for their money, as they did on occasions last season. Signing Sakon Yamamoto as reserve driver is hardly a statement of intent for a team looking to move up the grid, either…

Of the newer teams, Lotus in particular had high hopes of improvement, having started design work on their 2011 car fairly early and secured Red Bull’s 2010 transmission package. Because of these expectations, their performance was probably the most disappointing of the new teams. Things didn’t start well, with an inauspicious debut for Karun Chandhok as test driver – the Indian crashed at Turn 3 on his first lap out of the pits on Friday morning!

The Lotuses (Loti?) were well off the tail of the midfield runners and only half a second clear of Glock’s Virgin in qualifying. The race was better, with Trulli finishing two laps clear of D’Ambrosio, but also two laps behind the winner. The problem was apparently getting heat into the Pirelli tyres, but it seemed strange that this problem wasn’t picked up on in winter testing (which took place entirely in Europe and therefore provided ample cold weather running).

Nevertheless, the team at least look equipped to improve in future races, and seem to be the only one of the three ‘new’ teams to have improved relative to this time last season. Lotus may struggle to catch the midfield runners though, simply because they all look potentially strong this year – teams like Toro Rosso and Sauber have clearly improved, while Force India look quicker than expected after testing, and two of these three teams have already scored points (with Sauber looking well placed to do so in future after the blow of their post-race double disqualification). It could therefore be a lonely year for Heikki and Jarno and another 10^th place in the championship for Lotus.

F1 2011 Season Preview

So, the 2011 F1 season is finally almost upon us, and to celebrate I have completed short driver profiles for all 24 men who will line up for the first race of the season in Australia on Sunday (107% rule permitting). I have chosen to focus somewhat on the battle between teammates this year, as I find that one of the most fascinating elements of Formula 1. For example, how can Jarno Trulli struggle to beat Heikki Kovalainen in 2010 despite matching Fernando Alonso earlier in his career (2004), who in turn matched Lewis Hamilton in 2007. Hamilton himself then thrashed Kovalainen in 2008-9… but I digress. Setting myself up for a fall, I have listed the teams in the order in which I expect them to finish in the Constructors’ Championship, and predicted where each driver will finish overall as well. With new tyres from Pirelli, the introduction of moveable wings and the ban on double diffusers, this season is one of the hardest ever to predict the outcome of (just to get the excuses in early…), and despite the usual whining from the drivers about these changes, hopefully the racing will be better this year than last (which wasn’t half bad). It’s also great to see the teams coming up with innovative new ideas, like McLaren’s unusual sidepod arrangement and Renault’s trick exhaust system. I for one cannot wait for the five red lights to go out in Melbourne. So without further ado…

Red Bull

Sebastian Vettel (World Championship Prediction: 1^st)

The reigning Formula 1 champion, and youngest ever, was prone to the odd mistake last season as he waged an ultimately successful battle with Fernando Alonso, Lewis Hamilton and Mark Webber. Nevertheless, Vettel and Red Bull were simply the fastest driver-car combination on the grid, and there’s no reason to expect that to change this year. Prodigiously talented, the young German could become one of the all-time greats if he can tone down his occasional petulant moments. Critics say he cannot overtake and lacks racecraft, but he drove through the field at times when he needed to last year and will doubtless do so again in 2011. Provided anyone can get ahead of him in the first place…

Mark Webber (Prediction: 4^th)

Webber was brilliant in 2010, but still couldn’t quite beat the boy-wonder Vettel. Expect more of the same in 2011, with Vettel seemingly full of confidence after his maiden title win. Webber actually started and finished 2010 quite poorly, and needs to maintain his consistency over the full season this time if he is to have any chance of beating his teammate. A perceived (or perhaps actual) lack of support from his team may also adversely affect the Australian, but Mark is a gritty, determined character and is likely to knuckle down and score numerous podiums and almost certainly wins. Which after all, wouldn’t be bad for a number two driver. Sorry...

Ferrari

Fernando Alonso (Prediction: 2^nd)

It was a mixed 2010 season for Fernando Alonso. He managed to tread a fine line between being a double World Champion and respected elder statesman of the grid, and a petulant moaner, guilty of throwing his toys out of the pram as well as fundamental driving errors on numerous occasions. However, his strong finish to 2010, Abu Dhabi notwithstanding, means that he goes into 2011 as one of the favourites. The Ferrari appears stronger in testing than this time last year, so Fernando will be hoping for a consistent start to the year and some Red Bull unreliability to allow him to remain in touch with the championship lead, rather than spending the season chasing the pack, 2010-style.

Felipe Massa (Prediction: 5^th)

“Felipe baby” (ask Ferrari Race Engineer Rob Smedley) seemed to suffer from the Fernando Alonso effect in 2010, as the Spaniard set out on his usual mission to destroy his teammate both on and off the track. It’s easy to forget that Massa was one corner away from the World Championship in 2008, and one has to worry about the Brazilian’s psychological state heading into 2011 after the ignominy of having to let Alonso through in Germany last year. If Massa can draw the positives from that incident, in that he was quicker than Alonso before the call came, then perhaps he can at least attempt to challenge Fernando this year. If he is allowed to…

McLaren

Lewis Hamilton (Prediction: 3^rd)

In terms of championship position Lewis had a poor 2010 by his standards, ending up 4^th in the standings, although given that his car was third best for most of the year he actually did an excellent job. On paper, Lewis is one of the championship favourites. However, the new McLaren has looked a little off the pace in testing, so Hamilton will need to be at his best to regain the title. Another concern is the new Pirelli rubber, as Hamilton is generally reckoned to be harder on his tyres than teammate Button. Nevertheless, Hamilton simply has more outright pace than Button and should have the upper hand. The bigger concern is whether he can match Alonso and Vettel in potentially inferior equipment.

Jenson Button (Prediction: 6^th)

Which Brit will be on top this season? That’s a question that will intrigue a great many British fans this year, as the Button and Hamilton go head to head once again. Hamilton had the edge last season, but Jenson will be aware that the new Pirelli tyres, and their high levels of degradation, may play into his hands. He enjoyed a steady 2010, settling in well at McLaren but looking very much like the team’s number two driver for much of the year. Nevertheless, Button is by no means out of the hunt for a second World Championship if he can mate his past consistency with a little more outright pace.

Renault

Nick Heidfeld (Prediction: 7^th)

This is a chance of a lifetime for Heidfeld, who looked to be out of Formula 1 for good after a partial campaign with Sauber last year. Robert Kubica’s horrifying rallying crash left Renault looking for a new lead driver at short notice, and Heidfeld was the obvious choice. ‘Quick Nick’ reminds me of Jenson Button; competent and fast when the car suits him but perhaps lacking true star quality. Just as Button won the title in 2009 at Brawn, so Heidfeld could excel at Renault if he gets the team behind him. While a World Championship challenge is out of the question, if the Renault is on the pace Heidfeld could take podiums and maybe finally sneak that elusive first win if the cards fall his way.

Vitaly Petrov (Prediction: 11^th)

The first Russian in Formula 1, Vitaly Petrov heads into the 2011 season on the back of a patchy rookie year. Petrov’s substantial Russian backing is thought to be the main reason why he kept his drive, but he nevertheless displayed promise on occasions. However, having Heidfeld as a teammate actually presents Petrov with a problem – he wasn’t expected to beat Kubica, but if Heidfeld is constantly quicker than him it may make the Renault management question his future involvement with the team. If (and hopefully when) Kubica regains full fitness and retains his place in the lineup, it’s not inconceivable that the Russian could then be given the chop.

Mercedes

Michael Schumacher (Prediction: 8^th)

Oh dear. That is, largely, how people chose to sum up the legendary German’s 2010 season. 2011 promises to be better though, with a full winter of pre-season testing behind the German and the loss of the Bridgestone tyres which were apparently so unsuited to the great man’s driving style. The Mercedes hasn’t looked particularly brilliant in pre-season, but Schumacher will surely aid the car’s development and get it moving up the grid, and I would expect him to galvanise the team around him more than teammate Rosberg. Perhaps this will be enough for Michael to return to at least the lower steps of the podium. One thing is certain; he simply has to do so this season to avoid tarnishing his image, perhaps irreparably.

Nico Rosberg (Prediction: 9th)

Everyone said 2010 would finally tell us how good the son of 1982 World Champion Keke is, but despite thrashing Michael Schumacher, the verdict at the end of the season was still inconclusive. How much of Rosberg’s superiority was down to Michael’s struggles, and how much down to the younger German’s talents may become more apparent this year. Nico needs to maintain his advantage over his teammate, and as arguably the most talented driver on the grid not to have a win to his name, also push for the top step of the podium. Above all, he needs to silence the doubters and prove to the team and the wider F1 community that he is potential World Championship-challenging material.

Williams

Rubens Barrichello (Prediction: 10th)

Being the most experienced Formula 1 driver in history is never likely to be a disadvantage, and the ever-cheerful Rubens Barrichello heads into his 19^th season at the sport’s highest echelon with just as much enthusiasm as his first. And with good reason – the team finished 2010 on a high, and the new Williams looks a decent car. The rule changes should play into Rubens’ hands, as his veteran status may allow him to adapt to the very different Pirelli tyres and movable wings quicker than his other rivals. The Brazilian led the team well last season and should do so again this. A podium or two could be on the cards, particularly in races of mixed weather conditions and/or attrition.

Pastor Maldonado (Prediction: 13^th)

The 25 year old Columbian has been on the verge of securing an F1 drive for what seems like perpetuity, having (impressively) tested for Minardi as long ago as 2004.  Despite this, he’s been somewhat unfairly tarred with the ‘pay driver’ brush, despite the fact that he won the GP2 title at a canter last season (admittedly after several previous attempts). In terms of his prior experience, and indeed his equipment, Maldonado is probably the best placed of the rookies to shine this season, and should benefit immensely from having Barrichello in the other car.  However, as Nico Hulkenburg can attest, Formula 1 is a harsh business, and Maldonado must aim to push Barrichello hard in the latter part of the season.

Sauber

Kamui Kobayashi (Prediction: 11^th)

Despite some descriptions of “Kowboyashi” as a wild, reckless driver, the Japanese excelled in 2010, recording consistent race finishes, some good qualifying performances, and most impressively a number of fabulous overtaking moves. He also showed more experienced teammates Pedro de la Rosa and Nick Heidfeld the way for most of the season. In 2011, the dynamic within the team has changed, in that Kobayashi is now the senior driver, and as such will be expected to lead the team both on and off the track. This could therefore be a career defining season for Kamui – here’s hoping he can successfully step up to the team leader role while maintaining his exciting driving style and speed.

Sergio Perez (Prediction: 16^th)

An F1 rookie and the youngest of those on the grid this year, Sergio Perez’s rise from relative obscurity to F1 driver has been relatively rapid. Drivers like the Mexican, who graduate to F1 at a relatively tender age, tend to go on to have successful careers (Jenson Button, Fernando Alonso, Sebastien Vettel etc) despite their initial lack of experience. Perez certainly displayed his potential by beating a host of more experienced drivers to the runner up spot in GP2 last year, and also has financial backing from Telmex which presumably gives him some job security. He lacks an experienced teammate as a benchmark though, which may prove to be a disadvantage.

Toro Rosso

Jaime Alguersuari (Prediction: 14^th)

The lesser-known Spaniard on the grid actually improved quite a lot in 2010, and despite some petulant moments showed well on several occasions. This season, he needs to convert last season’s good drives (several 11^th places, for example) into great ones, and pick up as many points as possible. The new Toro Rosso looks to be a good improvement on last years’ (which is odd as the team appear to be moving further away from the ‘main’ Red Bull team in terms of design philosophy) and this should help Alguersuari’s cause. His battle with Buemi will be fascinating, as it could effectively be a shootout for a drive with Red Bull in 2012 or beyond.

Sebastien Buemi (Prediction: 17^th)

Sebastien is a driver who is coming into 2011 with a lot to prove. He showed promise in his debut season, but was largely anonymous last year and showed few signs of being capable of stepping up to the ‘senior’ Red Bull team (which, after all, is Toro Rosso’s raison d’etre). Improvements are needed this season in both qualifying pace and consistency, and as the more experienced driver at the team Buemi simply has to beat Alguersuari. The addition of Daniel Ricciardo as a test driver at the team may put additional pressure on both Toro Rosso drivers – how Buemi responds to this will be critical in shaping both his season and his longer-term F1 career.

Force India

Adrian Sutil (Prediction: 15^th)

Sutil generally did a great job in 2010, but did tail off somewhat at the end of the season as Force India dropped off the pace of development. A lack of momentum coming into 2011 is a concern, and on pre-season testing evidence it seems that Force India may have dropped behind Sauber, Toro Rosso and even Lotus. Sutil has been at the team for a number of years, and should the team struggle his motivation could take a dive. The German can’t afford this to happen though – he needs to beat Di Resta this year, because otherwise, with the highly rated Nico Hulkenburg as test driver, he could find himself the fall guy.

Paul Di Resta (Prediction: 19^th)

The not-very-Scottish sounding Paul Di Resta is the third British driver on the grid this year, and has received a fair bit of attention from the media because of it, with ridiculous comparisons to Sebastian Vettel made due to their former rivalry in F3. No doubt the BBC and particularly the moronic Jake Humphrey will ‘big him up’ at every opportunity, but Paul should look to keep his feet on the ground and aim to get as close to his teammate as possible at each event. The young Scotsman certainly has potential, and Force India is an ideal team for him to learn his trade. If he can match Sutil, it will be a job well done.

Lotus

Heikki Kovalainen (Prediction: 18^th)

The Finn was arguably one of the stars of 2010, and emerged as the man most likely to lead the new Lotus team towards recapturing the past glories of their illustrious namesake. While the name ‘Lotus’ itself may well be under threat this season, the new car looks a lot better than last year’s workmanlike effort, and Heikki will be hoping it can propel him towards the points places. If he can maintain his qualifying parity and racing advantage from 2010 over Jarno Trulli into this year, it will stand him in good stead, both to score points this year and to remain an integral part of the team as it aims still higher in future seasons.

Jarno Trulli (Prediction: 20^th)

The veteran seemed at times to have lost his impetus last season, as he participated in what turned out to be the only scoreless year of his F1 career thus far. At the very least Trulli will hope to score some points this year, as Lotus look towards challenging the midfield teams like Toro Rosso and Force India, rather than fighting Virgin and HRT. Trulli has always been a frustratingly inconsistent driver, and one wonders which Jarno will turn up this season. Hopefully his enthusiasm will return and with it his at-times stunning pace. However, if he doesn’t up his game, there’s no shortage of talented young drivers who could replace him.

Virgin

Timo Glock (Prediction: 21^st)

The German generally made the most of his opportunities in 2010, and easily beat teammate Di Grassi. This season again sees him paired with a rookie teammate, and he should again be clear team leader. The big question is whether the Virgin will be closer to the pace than last year - if it is, Glock will get the most out of it. If not, motivation could take a tumble and the German may look to pastures new. Past performances are swiftly forgotten in F1 though, and Timo will be keen to remind people of his past record as a solid points scorer and occasional podium-getter at Toyota.

Jerome D’Ambrosio (Prediction: 23^rd)

When thinking of young drivers knocking on the door of Formula 1, D’Ambrosio’s name is not one that instantly springs to mind, and in GP2 he generally showed signs of being good rather than great. That said, Kamui Kobayashi wasn’t exactly tipped to set the world alight in F1 either… If the first Belgian on the grid in over 15 years can impress as much as Kobayashi, it would be a surprise, particularly given his equipment. More realistic would be for Jerome to learn from and gradually get closer to Timo Glock’s performance, qualify for all the races, finish a large number of them, and just generally do better than the other ‘D’ (i Grassi) managed last season.

HRT

Narain Karthikeyan (Prediction: 24^th)

The Indian driver returns after a 5 year absence, and as evidenced by Michael Schumacher’s struggles last season this isn’t easy to do. But while Schumacher had the might of Mercedes behind him, Karthikeyan has only a hastily-designed HRT which (despite the input of Geoff Willis) is likely to be the slowest on the grid. It’s easy to forget that Narain has actually scored world championship points for a 4^th place finish, albeit in the farcical 6 car US grand Prix in 2005. He’s unlikely to add to his tally this season though, and will do well to simply qualify for all the races in light of the re-introduced 107% rule.

Vitantonio Liuzzi (Prediction: 22^nd)

‘Tonio’ has thrown in his lot with HRT for 2011, after being dropped by Force India in favour of Paul Di Resta after an inconsistent 2010. A fabulous 6^th place in qualifying in Canada last season showed what he is potentially capable of, but he generally struggled against Adrian Sutil. As probable team leader at HRT, Liuzzi could potentially thrive, and as long as he is able to maintain his motivation at the back of the grid, a reputation-boosting ‘Kovalainen 2010-style’ season could be on the cards. However, the fact that he is perhaps HRT’s greatest asset, despite not being wanted by any other teams, shows just how difficult the situation at the small Spanish team is.