Well first of all, expect the unexpected. Interlagos has
seen more than its fair share of crazy races in the past, in part due to wet
weather which is currently forecast for the coming weekend. Shock winners
include Giancarlo Fisichella in a Jordan in 2003, and Juan Pablo
Montoya for Williams the following year, a season that was otherwise one of Ferrari
domination. Neither of those races were championship deciders, but precipitation
intervened to electrify the
2008 race which famously saw Felipe Massa crowned champion for about 30
seconds, until Lewis Hamilton passed Timo Glock’s struggling Toyota to snatch
the prize.
Ironically it was Vettel, then driving for Toro Rosso, who
almost spoilt Hamilton’s
day on that occasion by passing the McLaren driver late on. There’s no doubt
Vettel is a fantastic wet weather driver, as his Monza win that season proved. But Alonso too
exhibits stunning car control in less than optimal conditions, and the 2012
Ferrari also seems useful in the wet given the combination’s win in Sepang and
pole at Silverstone. Rainfall also adds a random element; exactly what Ferrari
need if Alonso is to close the thirteen point gap to Vettel.
Realistically, the Spaniard needs Vettel to retire from the
race if he is to claim the title – even if Alonso wins, Vettel only needs a
fourth place to maintain his lead. With drainage a problem at the creaky
Interlagos track, a sudden downpour could easily catch either driver out (as Alonso himself found out
to his cost in 2003) and frustrate any attempt from Vettel to play it safe.
If it does rain, therefore, expect the mechanics dressed in red to look
considerably happier than those in navy attire.
In dry conditions, however, Red Bull have an obvious pace
advantage at seemingly all tracks. Interlagos isn’t your typical Tilke clone
though – it’s bumpy, undulating, high altitude and anti-clockwise. Gravel traps and walls are in close proximity to the track and the circuit’s relatively short length can mask a car’s
(and driver’s) deficiencies, as evidenced by Sakon Yamamoto’s seventh-fastest
race lap for Super Aguri in 2006. In seasons past, cars which have struggled
throughout the year have shone in Brazil in dry conditions – Montoya’s ‘04 win
for Williams and Robert Kubica’s 2009 podium finish in the otherwise
disappointing BMW-Sauber
F1.09 spring to mind.
While the Red Bull should prove competitive around
Interlagos’s fast sweepers, the Ferraris should be well placed to challenge,
particularly as any mistakes in qualifying (of which Vettel has made a couple
recently) will be punished on such a short lap. I say Ferraris because Felipe
Massa’s improved recent form means he should be able to mix it with the
championship contenders, particularly on his home circuit where he won
convincingly in 2006 and 2008. Stefano
Domenicali has acknowledged the potential importance of the Brazilian’s
contribution, and his enforced grid penalty in Austin points to Ferrari’s continued
willingness to intentionally compromise their number two driver.
Red Bull too have been equally enthusiastic in their support
of Vettel in the past though, and with the constructor’s title won Mark Webber
will no doubt be called upon to assist his team mate where possible. It’s hard
to say how much practical support either team mate can provide however; Alonso
needs more drivers than just Massa
between him and Vettel in order to take the title, while if Webber is ahead of
Alonso in the race, the chances are Vettel will be as well. This is unless, of
course, recent Renault alternator woes strike again – Red
Bull reverting to a newer spec version after Webber’s retirement in Austin adds another
element to this fascinating title decider.
So who’s going to win it? Well the smart money remains on
Vettel, with a clear points and car advantage. But if I were the German, I
would be somewhat nervous going up against the mercurial Alonso, in a
bullet-proof Ferrari, on an unconventional and (possibly) wet circuit, while
knowing that one mistake could throw the title wide open again. Whatever the
outcome, it’s going to be a tension packed and exhilarating finale to a great
year.
