In the good old days, the F1 “silly season” started much earlier, traditionally around the time of the British Grand Prix of the previous year. Speculation around which drivers would end up where, and even concerning which teams would be on the grid for the following season, would often last almost until the day of first practice for the opening race.
This was in part due to the hand-to-mouth existence of many teams, who kept seats open to the highest bidders for as long as possible and often had to change their drivers mid-season to ensure they stayed on the grid. There were frequently some juicy, if often bizarre rumours surrounding more successful drivers and teams as well – Alain Prost was linked to a Ligier drive in 1992 and there were rumours (not without foundation) of a McLaren drive in 1994. Nigel Mansell was even rumoured to be making a comeback as recently as 2001 at the age of 47 with Minardi!
While the recent economic downturn has signalled a new emphasis on finding drivers with backing and a partial return to the ‘good old days’ of the pay driver, most race seats are still sorted pretty early nowadays, particularly among the top (read 'better funded') teams who usually have their drivers tied to multi-year deals. This means that much of the pre-season fun of speculating who will end up in which car no longer takes place, but thanks to Williams and HRT there are still a couple of spaces on the 2011 grid for current and prospective Grand Prix drivers (huge wad of cash an advantage but not essential).
The most sought-after drive for the 2012 Formula 1 season is undoubtedly the second Williams seat alongside Pastor Maldonado. Although Williams do sadly appear to be a team terminally in decline, not helped by the recently-announced departure of Patrick Head, a seat with a former world championship-winning team powered by the current world championship-winning engine is still an attractive proposition.
The 2011 incumbent, the veteran Rubens Barrichello, could well end up being surplus to requirements after an indifferent season, hence the battle for the position alongside Maldonado who has been announced for 2012 after some solid performances in his rookie season (as well as a great dollop of funding from Venezuelan oil giant PDVSA).
The main contenders, aside from Barrichello, are the other drivers who raced in F1 for the majority of 2011 but don’t yet have a seat sorted for 2012 - Adrian Sutil, Vitaly Petrov, Jaime Alguersuari, Bruno Senna, Nick Heidfeld and Vitantonio Liuzzi (not yet confirmed to be staying with, or indeed leaving, HRT). Sebastien Buemi would also have been on this list, but has now secured a role as third driver across both Red Bull-backed teams for 2012 (a logical move due to the Swiss driver’s long-held ties to Red Bull but which somehow managed to take the BBC by “surprise”).
Of the remaining candidates, Adrian Sutil looks a good fit for Williams. The German had a great 2011 and has proved over the last two seasons that he is capable of leading a team despite stiff recent competition from Paul di Resta. One would assume that he is now experienced enough to develop a car effectively as well, especially given Force India’s improved form throughout 2011 (although they did slip off the ultimate pace during 2010).
But a move to Williams would in some ways be a retrograde step, and I have a sneaking suspicion that Sutil may consider himself a possible successor to Michael Schumacher at Mercedes. A year on the sidelines, or better still as Mercedes’ test driver, would be a risky but potentially astute move. Provided he does want the Williams drive though, the German’s relative lack of success may count against him – he’s never been on the podium in 90 starts (admittedly unsurprising given the car he’s been driving for most of those races).
Petrov has been on the podium of course, in Australia in 2011. But the Russian’s form has been patchy since, and it would surprise me if Williams went for a driver with relatively little experience alongside the still-raw Maldonado. That could also count against young Alguersuari – if Williams were looking for a driver to race alongside Barrichello he would surely be near the top of their list after a series of impressive drives in the second half of 2011, but still lacks experience and (presumably) the ability to develop a car.
In addition, having been backed by Red Bull for most of his career, the Spaniard does not have that crucial portfolio of sponsors to fall back on, unlike Sutil (with his Medion backing), Petrov (with numerous potential Russian investors) and Bruno Senna. The Brazilian would be a left-field but emotive choice, given his uncle’s death at the wheel of one of Sir Frank’s cars – Williams still carry the Senna corporate logo on the front wing of all their Formula 1 cars as a mark of respect to the fallen three-time champion. But, again, a lack of experience counts against him, as well as a general lack of star quality despite some decent drives for Renault last year and despite (or maybe because of) the gravitas of the Senna name.
As for the rest, Heidfeld has been linked to a drive with BMW in DTM and appears not to be a contender to return to F1 (although judging by this section on his official website, a second career as a fashion buyer or model surely beckons!). And Liuzzi, despite having tested for Williams in the distant past, is highly unlikely to jump back into a midfield car despite a decent season in the HRT, although he could stay on with the Spanish outfit.
Speaking of which, some of the above-named drivers could well be eying Liuzzi’s seat at HRT, with Pedro de la Rosa already confirmed at the Spanish minnows. A driver with backing is unsurprisingly needed, with Alguersuari (who appears a logical choice given his nationality if nothing else) apparently ruled out by both the team and the Spaniard himself.
Senna is possible but improbable, given his past association with the team which neither side have been particularly complementary about, and it seems unlikely that the other drivers mentioned above would be interested in dropping to the very back of the grid just to remain on it (important though that is). Don’t be surprised therefore if a young driver (with, you’ve guessed it, money) ends up as de la Rosa’s team-mate – Spaniard Dani Clos, who took part in the young driver test at Abu Dhabi with the team, has been tipped.
So on balance, who should get the drives? Well, I would plump for Sutil if I were Sir Frank Williams, but failing that Rubens Barrichello is probably as good a choice as any, given his experience and winning record. Indeed despite a lacklustre 2011, recent conjecture has suggested Barrichello’s chances of retaining his drive have increased in recent weeks.
And as for HRT, since it appears Alguersuari can’t be tempted (or afforded) the team could do worse than keep Liuzzi on for another year, provided he and/or the team can find the necessary backing. So despite all the talk and potential candidates (and my wittering), both teams could well end up sticking with the devil they know rather than one that they don’t. And that, after all, is the beauty of all this speculation – it remains only rumour.
Failing any of the above options, Sakon Yamamoto is available…
