As
well as excitement on the driving front, one benefit of unchanged technical
regulations is that the grid usually tightens. There were already a number of weekends
last year where the majority of the field were covered by around a second, and
of course we had the oft-quoted seven different winners in the first seven
races. It’s unlikely that we’ll have that many this year (seven in total would be
fine; only that many managed a podium in 2002, to pick a random previous
season!), but if the racing stays close, the tyres remain unpredictable and the cars can
do a bit of overtaking again then we’ll be in for a cracking year.
Team-by-Team
Red Bull
During
a recent BBC Radio 5 Live Formula 1 programme, not one guest tipped Sebastian
Vettel to retain his crown in 2013. Only Juan Manuel Fangio and Michael
Schumacher have managed four titles in a row (or three for that matter, until
Vettel came along) so it’s not altogether surprising from a statistical point
of view that the pundits don’t fancy the German. Another issue could be
Vettel’s motivation in the wake of his previous triumphs, but he seems aware of
F1 history and his place in it and managed to stay sufficiently interested last
season to make up a 45 point championship gap. He also demonstrated some
excellent racecraft in 2012 and looks a more complete driver by the year. Mark
Webber also remains at the team for a seventh successive season, despite some harsh words from
Helmut Marko regarding his abilities. It’s doubtful the no-nonsense Aussie
is particularly bothered, but he has admitted he needs to re-find his previous
consistency in order to put together a title tilt. The combined times
from the final test do suggest that the momentum has swung away from the
team slightly, and given that the RB9 is clearly a refinement of last year’s
design it will inevitably get more difficult for the brilliant Adrian Newey to
squeeze more performance from the car. This in turn, due to the closeness of
the field and the fact that Red Bull weren’t actually all that dominant for
much of 2012, could give their rivals a look in. But despite what the experts
say and the law of diminishing returns, until the rules change for 2014 it’s
hard to see past Red Bull as title favourites. Remember, Vettel and the team
haven’t lost a championship since 2009…
Ferrari
The
Scuderia simply has to get it right this season. Despite Fernando Alonso coming
oh-so-close to the world championship last year the boxy, Lego-like F2012
simply wasn’t good enough, especially at the start of the season. Outpaced by
Ferrari customer Sauber at many circuits, only Alonso’s genius kept the
legendary Italian team in contention most weekends. The Spaniard has already
admitted that this year’s car cannot be worse than last year’s – hardly
unreserved praise for his team’s efforts but a realistic assessment. The F138 is
described as evolutionary, which in some ways is worrying given the lack of
inherent pace in the 2012 chassis. Alonso, by his
own admission, is in the form of his career, and it would be unjust in the
extreme if he was unable to add to his two world titles at some point in the
next few years. Few would argue that team mate Felipe Massa was experiencing a
similar purple patch in career terms, but his form did improve dramatically in
the second half of 2012 and a great drive in support of Alonso at home in
Brazil resulted in an emotional podium. The operative phrase in that last
sentence is ‘in support of Alonso’, and that’s a role which Massa will
inevitably continue to play both contractually and in terms of outright pace.
So, with both drivers looking in decent shape for the new season, it’s over to
the men in Maranello to see if they have produced (and can develop) a car to
match the very best. With the field looking even closer than 2012, a slow start
would be incredibly costly – expect heads to roll if, once again, the red cars
cannot contend for the podium straight out of the blocks.
McLaren
It’s
all change at McLaren this season, with the prodigal son Lewis Hamilton taking
his talents elsewhere. Jenson Button seemed happy enough about this state of
affairs, cheerfully
commenting that he’d rather lose Lewis than Paddy Lowe. How prophetic those
words have turned out to be with the erstwhile McLaren designer placed on
gardening leave as he prepares to join the rest of the pit lane’s technical
directors (and Hamilton) at Mercedes. Luckily the MP4-28 was already finished,
but the loss of the man who shaped it can only harm car development. This is already
apparent in pre-season testing, with the squad’s admission that they
are struggling to understand their new machine. Hamilton’s experience would
no doubt have been useful here too, but at least in Button the team can still
turn to a former world champion with over 200 races under his belt. Whether
Button is quite good enough to put a championship challenge together again
(when not armed with the best car) remains to be seen, and it will be
interesting to see how he copes with being the outright team leader for
arguably only the second time in his career (Takuma Sato never offered much
opposition at BAR). Sergio Perez joins the team fresh from a generally great
season at Sauber which tailed off so alarmingly that many observers are now
questioning McLaren’s decision to employ the young Mexican. The last South
American to drive for McLaren (Juan Pablo Montoya) didn’t work out too well,
but the one before that (a certain A. Senna) seemed to do okay. Neither Perez
nor Button are great qualifiers, and that may partly explain the
team’s pessimism going into Melbourne. Nevertheless, they should win races
(plural).
Lotus
The
former Renault/Benetton/Toleman team were the revelations of 2012. Their car
was consistent and fast out of the box, and Kimi Raikkonen remained in outside
contention for the championship for much of the season. The monotone Finn
remains in situ for 2013 and despite a lack of qualifying pace last year at
times, certainly knows what he’s doing in an F1 car (by his own admission!). Romain
Grosjean is in the second seat once more and at times seemed to have no idea
what he was doing in 2012, particularly off the start line. The (slightly
harsh) one race ban he received for causing the frightening shunt in
Spa that in effect cost Alonso the world championship should hopefully calm
the Frenchman down without tempering the raw pace which saved his drive. The
team were the first to launch their 2013 challenger, which looks outwardly
similar to last year’s machine but still managed to prove unreliable in
testing. Nevertheless, when the car has been running the lap times have looked
good, and Lotus are widely expected to be contenders in Albert Park and for the
rest of the season. One wonders whether they can really do much better than in
2012 though – the team don’t have the biggest of budgets and are no longer Renault’s
focus due to no longer having works status and because of the success of Red
Bull. Their relative lack of finance and manpower may harm the team’s chances once
work on building a car to the 2014 rules takes precedence, so Raikkonen will surely
have to score some big results early if he wants to be a world title contender
once again.
Mercedes
The
off-season for Mercedes has been somewhat fraught after the appointment of the abrasive
Niki Lauda as a non-executive chairman. Given his
previous form for firings when in charge of Jaguar in 2002, it’s hardly
surprising that Norbert Haug has already headed for the exit and Ross Brawn has
been linked with a departure from the team which used to bear his name. At the
other side of the revolving door are Toto Wolff and Paddy Lowe, as well as Lewis
Hamilton after the team pulled off a massive coup by persuading him to leave
McLaren towards the end of last season. Frankly it’s harder to name F1
technical staff who don’t work for Mercedes, and a ‘too many cooks’ situation
could easily develop. To his credit Hamilton doesn’t seem phased, and is
willing to bide his time confident that the team will come up with the goods
for 2014. With the might of Mercedes behind them they may well do, but what of
this year? Well, Hamilton’s
rivals expect him to be able to win, while the Briton himself isn’t so
sure. Team mate Nico Rosberg is almost forgotten in all this, but he did win
Mercedes first race in Shanghai last year (where he always goes well).
Worryingly however, an aging Michael Schumacher often seemed to produce the
standout race drives between the pair over the last couple of years. Rosberg
and Hamilton are great mates and should work well together, and the new W04 has
looked quick at Barcelona in testing, so an improvement on last year’s fifth place
in the constructors’ should be possible. With manufacturer backing, two experienced
drivers, numerous technical staff and Lauda in charge, what
could go wrong?
Sauber
I wrote
last year that Sauber’s history and form in Formula 1, and seemingly their
whole outlook, is summed up by their black and while colour scheme. The fact
that this year they’ve switched to grey suggests more of the same. But that
would be to totally ignore 2012, which was a season of stunning (relative)
success for the Swiss squad. Four podiums was a fabulous return which could
have been even better but for a bit more luck. Their 2013 car, aside from the
new paint job, features tiny sidepods apparently
inspired by Sergio Perez’s 2011 Monaco crash. Whether that was the extent
of the Mexican’s car development skills will soon become clear, as the team has
an all-new driver line-up for this year. Nico Hulkenberg’s arrival from Force
India is something of a coup given his end of season form, and the German will
hope to further enhance his blossoming reputation with some giant- killing
performances – both he and his new team managed plenty of those last year.
Esteban Gutierrez’s arrival has been met with less enthusiasm, particularly as
it has led to fan-favourite Kamui Kobayashi’s unemployment. The second Mexican
on the grid has looked solid in pre-season testing, but doubts remain as to
whether he is F1 quality with his promotion from a test driver role seemingly coming at the behest of the
team’s backers. Given the stability in the regulations and the loss of two
good drivers, the Swiss cars reaching the podium again in 2013 would constitute
a success, and if Williams and Force India can string full seasons together they
may relegate Sauber a couple of places in the constructor’s standings.
Force India
Despite
murmurings of financial
issues for Vijay Mallya and his Kingfisher airline, Force India have
received a fresh injection of funding for 2013 which should allow it to
continue to challenge for points. The team started 2012 slowly but shone in
later races, almost catching Sauber for sixth in the constructor’s standings
and even coming close to winning the wet Brazilian Grand Prix through Nico
Hulkenberg’s great drive. The German has made the sideways leap to Sauber, but Scot
Paul di Resta remains. Di Resta is an unexciting
but capable driver, though given the hype the British media (i.e. the BBC) have
given him in the past one has to wonder why no better teams have tried to snap
him up before now. The choice of Adrian Sutil as the team’s second driver has
been questioned in some quarters, but to this observer it makes total sense.
Why spend a year bringing Jules Bianchi up to speed when (provided he performs
well) Ferrari could take him back again at a moment’s notice? Far better to go
for the experienced and proven Sutil for 2013, especially as he was clearly in
the form of his career at the end of 2011. Criminal convictions have dulled a
driver’s competitive edge in the past (as Bertrand
Gachot can attest), but there’s no evidence from testing that the hungry
Sutil will suffer. On the technical front Mercedes engines remain an asset, and
the new car looks a tidy evolution of last year’s design. Testing pace has been
solid, so all the ingredients are set for another season nibbling at the rear
of the big boys. Two drivers capable of scoring points from the off could see
them defeat Sauber this time round.
Williams
On
the surface, it seems ridiculous to state that Williams underachieved last year
(except by 1990s standards) after they
took their first win for eight years in Barcelona having scored only five
points during 2011. But consistency was lacking, especially from Circuit de
Catalunya victor Pastor Maldonado, and this led to an eventual eighth place
constructor’s championship finish. Time and again strong finishes and even
potential podiums were lost through incidents, so more regular points placings
will rank as a priority for 2013. Maldonado (and his substantial state oil
company backing) remains, and his outright pace (and improved end of year form)
last season shouldn’t be overlooked, just as his numerous shunts can’t. It’s
hard to say whether the arrival of the highly-rated Valtteri Bottas will push
Maldonado towards glory or gravel traps,
but the team as a whole should benefit as Bruno Senna never quite managed to
get onto the ultimate pace last year. Finnish
drivers tend to be successful (all the Finns in F1 since the 1980s have scored
podiums) and a year spent doing Friday practice sessions should benefit Bottas,
who’s my tip to be the rookie of the year from the larger-than-normal
selection. The new FW35 was the last new car to launch (HRT used to have that
one sewn up!) but has looked strong so far, and Maldonado in particular has
been effusive in his praise of the team’s latest creation. With a race
winner (Maldonado… that still seems odd) in one seat and a rookie tipped to
make it to the very top in the other, as well as the world championship-winning
engine from the last three years, Williams no longer have any excuses to
underperform.
Toro Rosso
After
being stuck in no-man’s land for most of 2012 (not fast enough to challenge the
midfield regularly, nowhere near slow enough to be beaten by the tail enders),
the Italian Red Bull junior squad are hopeful of progress in 2013. The arrival of
James Key as technical director is a coup, as the Englishman has previously
worked with, and improved, just the teams (Force India, Sauber) that Toro Rosso
should be looking to beat. The former Minardi squad are one of the few teams in
the pit lane to retain the same drivers as last season which will provide
welcome continuity, although in truth neither man consistently impressed in
2012. Sixth on the grid in Bahrain aside Daniel Ricciardo was somewhat
anonymous, although he did improve in the latter half of the year and was
certainly the better Toro Rosso driver in qualifying. Jean-Eric Vergne is an
accomplished racer who needs to work on his one lap pace – he dropped out in Q1
too many times in his debut season. On last year’s form he will do so again in
2013, especially given the
change in qualifying format necessitated by the loss of HRT which means two
established runners (six in total) drop out after Q1. Being closer to the points
positions at each race would constitute a success, but it’s hard to see Toro
Rosso beating Sauber, Williams or Force India over a full season. More
interesting is the team mate battle between Ricciardo and Vergne, as whoever
shines the most has a great chance of a drive at the sister Red Bull team in
the near future. The danger is they match each other again, and then both get
the chop – just ask Sebastien Buemi and Jaime Alguersuari…
Caterham
Despite
an 11th place race finish in Brazil, which at least saved the team the
embarrassment and financial cost of finishing the constructors’ championship
behind Marussia, Caterham never looked close to scoring their first ever point
last year. Three seasons with no score is a pretty dismal record, and few outfits
in the last 20 years have been able to sustain such mediocrity for so long
(Minardi spring to mind, although points were only given to the top six or
eight cars when they competed). No surprise, therefore, that Caterham team boss
Cyril Abiteboul has lowered expectations for 2013 after outlandish predictions
of matching the midfield in the past two years. This lack of optimism has
proven sensible thus far, as the Caterham CT02 has only been a match for
Marussia’s MR02 in testing, despite being initially fitted with a
performance-enhancing covered exhaust which
the FIA now deem illegal. With hasty modifications needed, and without
Heikki Kovalainen, don’t be surprised if the green cars find themselves lagging
behind the Marussias for the first time. Charles Pic, who has made the switch
between the two tail-end teams in a manner which would have made Roberto Moreno proud,
must wonder what he’s let himself in for. The Frenchman had a decent debut
season, matching and beating Timo Glock on occasion, but will now be expected
to lead his new squad – it will be interesting to see how he copes. Giedo van
der Garde has been floating around the
junior formulae for what seems like an eternity, but finally gets his F1 chance
after numerous previous tests and some slightly above-average performances in
GP2 (and after writing a few
cheques...). With neither driver considered a potential superstar, another
interesting battle between team mates awaits.
Marussia
2012
was a year of steady progress for the Russian-owned, British-run team. The
former Virgin squad managed to create daylight between themselves and the
now-defunct HRT outfit, and matched the Caterhams in some races. But
heartbreakingly losing
tenth place in the constructors’ standings, and the money that goes with
it, in the rain of Interlagos may have major long-term ramifications. Though
team bosses say their finances are stable for this year, this is largely due to
the removal of Timo Glock as lead driver. The experienced German, while
occasionally seeming fed up with his lot, was the lynchpin around which the
rest of the team was built and provided valuable car-development feedback. With
Pic having moved to Caterham, Marussia are left with an all-new, all-rookie
driver line-up (the first all-rookie F1 team since Jordan in 2005). Max Chilton
is probably the least heralded British driver to join the grid since Ralph Firman (remember
him?), but his results in the junior formulae haven’t been all that bad.
Brazilian Luiz Razia was due to take the second seat, but lost it to Ferrari-protégé
Jules Bianchi after failing to keep up sponsorship payments. The fourth French
driver on the grid is highly rated by the paddock, despite not having won a
championship since the Formula 3 Euro Series in 2009. It will be fascinating to
see who comes out on top (Bianchi is the more likely) and whether either driver
is able to forge a long-term F1 career as so few former Marussia/Virgin drivers
have managed to do (again, Bianchi’s Ferrari links will help him here). Whether
the impoverished team themselves have a long term future, with costly
regulation changes looming for 2014, remains to be seen.
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